- Political polls have been under increased scrutiny since Donald Trump’s surprise victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
- The polls in 2020 have largely been consistent, with Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, maintaining a steady lead over Trump.
- One of the notable trends emerging in the homestretch is Biden pulling away in Wisconsin, a key state Trump picked up in 2016.
- Biden’s lead there has grown from low single digits to a 17-point margin in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, which has an A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight.
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With less than a week to go until Election Day, the sheer amount of polling available can be tough to digest all at once.
We’re breaking down what’s worth paying attention to in key states and which trends are moving the needle.
The 2016 election led to a lot of scrutiny of polling and to skepticism among the public and politicians because of Donald Trump’s surprise victory over Hillary Clinton.
Most of that came down to a mix of a lack of polling in certain states and significant errors in others, such as Michigan.
Another state that surprised political observers in 2016 was Wisconsin, a longtime Democratic stronghold in the Upper Midwest.
This time around, Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, has built up a substantial lead in the Badger State.
Here's what's standing out in the polling:
- Biden's lead in Wisconsin was in the low-to-mid single digits over the summer, but a new ABC News/Washington Post poll has him up 17 points over Trump.
- That poll has an A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight, and even with its margins of error of plus or minus 3.5 to 4 points, there would have to be something significantly off in the sampling for Trump to be competitive in Wisconsin.
- Biden was ahead of Trump by 16 points among suburban voters in the ABC/WaPo poll.
- Wisconsin is seeing one of the most severe COVID-19 outbreaks in the country, and Biden has consistently received higher marks than Trump on ability to handle the pandemic.
- The same poll also surveyed Michigan, where it found Biden with 51% support to Trump's 44%.
- To have a shot at winning the Electoral College, the Trump campaign would like to secure either Wisconsin or Michigan, though there are paths to the required 270 electoral votes that involve losing both.
- Biden maintains a 9.2-point lead over Trump nationally, according to FiveThirtyEight's rolling average.
The so-called blue wall of the Upper Midwest was a major focus for Democrats during the 2020 primary season, but at this point, Wisconsin is looking safer than ever for Biden, and Michigan isn't too far behind.
Biden has traveled to both states recently, but look out for the campaign's focus to shift to once secure GOP territory in Texas and Georgia, both of which The Cook Political Report now considers toss-ups.